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HOW TO PREPARE FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE 123
predict major regional differences – the northern regions will warm up the most, and
western Norway the least. Annual precipitation could increase by 5 % to 30 %,
accompanied by major seasonal and regional variations, and more frequent
precipitation, including massive snowfalls. Ocean temperatures and acidification are
expected to increase, and the sea level along Norway’s southern and western coasts
is projected to rise by 50–100 cm. Sea level increases of 40–90 cm are expected in
northern Norway and 20–70 cm in the areas of the Oslo and Trondheim fjords, with
corresponding increases in storm surge heights. The Green Paper and White Paper
also highlight Norway’s vulnerability to climate change and state that the extent of
this vulnerability will depend on the ability of the natural environment and
Norwegian society to meet such change in the future.
Norwegian society is used to dealing with severe weather in a rough Nordic
climate with many people living in remote areas. However, the anticipated frequency
and magnitude of the severe weather caused by climate change will probably be new
and thus unprecedented in terms of previous experience. The bottom line is that
despite the fact that most climate researchers today foresee considerable climate
change, we do not really know the pace of such change and what type of natural
disasters Norway will have to be prepared for.
The impact of climate change will
have diverse regional implications, meaning most adaptation measures will need to
be applied regionally
. Since climate change and its effects will not be equal even at
the local level in Norway, the authorities and other stakeholders operating on a local
level will face a great deal of uncertainty over what type of natural disasters their
community will have to build resilience against.
The municipalities’ responsibility in climate adaptation
Policy documents on several levels have acknowledged that in order to build
resilience against future natural disasters caused by climate change, climate
adaptation measures will have to be implemented on international, national and local
levels (Ministry of the Environment, 2010, 2013; Goodsite
et al.
, 2013; Pachauri et
al., 2014). The White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation states that everyone is
responsible for climate change adaptation – individuals, business, industry and the
authorities (Ministry of the Environment, 2013). However, the local character of the
impacts of climate change puts the 428 municipalities in Norway in the front line for
ensuring safe communities for Norwegian citizens. To enable the municipalities to
ensure resilient and sustainable communities in the future, adaptation to climate
change has been made an integral part of municipal responsibilities. The Planning
and Building Act (2008) and Civil Protection Act (2010) require municipalities to
carry out risk and vulnerability analyses (Furevik, 2012). These assessments are seen
as crucial in clarifying issues and areas of risk relevant to each municipality and for
recommending initiatives to be taken by various parties in order to reduce
vulnerability to climate-induced events.