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prepared for climate change, whether it is in the western part of the world, including
Norway, or other parts of the globe.
Compared to other countries, the outlook for the Nordic region is relatively
favourable because climate change impacts are not expected to be as severe there as
in many other parts of the world. Additionally, Norway`s robust institutions and
economy provide a strong foundation for building the capacity to adapt (Ministry of
the Environment, 2010; Goodsite
et al.
, 2013). This is fortunate as Norwegian
society will have to be prepared to confront more extreme weather as one impact of
climate change. How this future extreme weather will evolve in Norway, and how it
will affect the societal safety of Norwegian citizens, are questions for which there
are no clear answers.
This contribution draws on theories from risk and safety research in order to
discuss challenges the municipalities in Norway will face in adapting to future
extreme weather. Adaptation, along with mitigation, is essential in addressing the
challenges and opportunities associated with climate change. Mitigation refers to
efforts to limit both the man-made causes and the effects of climate change.
Adaptation involves taking action so society can be more resilient to the current and
future climate, less susceptible to the impacts of future climate change, and in a
position to take advantage of any opportunities it brings (EU Commission, 2009).
We will discuss what type of risk and crises climate change are, and how the
characteristics of such crises might contribute to inadequate mitigation and
management of such risks. At the local level, the municipalities bear specific
responsibility for adapting to climate change, and are obliged to conduct risk and
vulnerability analyses with regard to future climate change. Some shortcomings of
related risk analysis tools are discussed, among which is their inability to confront
the challenges of “black swans” – surprising extreme events – and help build better
resilience, which could lay the foundation for better climate change adaptation.
Uncertainty regarding the future climate in Norway
According to the IPPC, if the emission of greenhouse gases is not reduced, the
estimated average temperature around the globe will increase by 3.7 to 4.8 degrees
Celsius in the future (Pachauri
et al.
, 2014). Accordingly, the magnitude of climate
change will depend on the extent to which the international community succeeds in
limiting emissions of greenhouse gases. Although a considerable amount of research
has aimed to estimate the extent and impacts of global warming, little is known about
how this increase in temperature will affect individual regions. In fact, the smaller
the geographical area under consideration, the greater the uncertainty regarding the
actual outcomes of climate change.
The Norwegian Green Paper and White Paper on Climate Change Adaptation
(Ministry of the Environment, 2010, 2013) describe a range of three detailed
prognoses for future climate change in Norway, based on different scenarios. These
indicate mean annual temperature increases of 2.3 °C to 4.6 °C by 2100, with the
greatest increase occurring during winter and the least during summer. They also